Will typically dull GOP officers convention offer any surprises? Eh … probably not.

Political party officers conventions aren’t usually very exciting events.

At an officer’s convention the party faithful gather to take a look at the rules and bylaws of the party, eat, drink and be merry, attend speeches and workshops, and then near the end of the two-day convention delegates from around the state cast their votes to elect a the next chair, vice chair, secretary and treasurer of the party.

In most cases we know who the next chairperson will be going into the event. It’s been years since the Montana GOP has a serious contest for party chairman and the rest of the officer positions have very little actual power within the party.

For the most part, officers conventions are dull gatherings to the outside observer.  Unlike the platform and candidate conventions there usually isn’t a whole lot of energy surrounding these much smaller affairs. After all, how many Montana voters know who their party officers are…or care? It’s ‘inside baseball' politics that only the most committed party members pay much attention to. That goes for Republicans and Democrats.

However, the Montana GOP’s officers convention in Bozeman at the end of the week has the potential for a little more excitement than in years past.  I don’t expect there to be too much in the way of fireworks, but here’s a rundown of some possibly interesting developments heading into Friday’s convention:

Three-way race for chair

It’s been well documented that the Montana GOP is not, at the moment, a unified party. The chairman race highlights one of divisions within the party.

Incumbent party chair Will Deschamps, of Missoula, is being challenged by Don Hart, of Bozeman, and Gary Carlson, of Victor.

Most of the so-called “liberty Republicans,” many of whom are Ron Paul supporters, are said to be backing Hart. The more mainstream or “establishment” Republicans are throwing their support to Deschamps, who has already served two two-year terms as Montana GOP chair. Carlson may draw votes from both camps, but it’s not clear where his base, if any, stems from.

Former Rep. Derek Skees, R-Whitefish, is leading the charge for Hart as part of what he called a “anybody but Deschamps” movement within the party.

Skees, was lost his statewide race for State Auditor last fall, said the opposition to Deschamps is high among Montana Republicans because of the poor GOP record in statewide races over the past four years.

But the chairmanship race a three-way race, which means Carlson and Hart will likely divide any opposition to Deschamps. If all three stay in the race my guess is Deschamps wins reelection to a third term by a relatively comfortable margin. Do as many as 60 percent of the delegates oppose Deschamps’ chairmanship, as Skees claims? We’ll see.

But as the incumbent who has built strong ties to the party establishment it’s unlikely Deschamps will be defeated by an insurgent in a three-way race. All he needs is a majority of votes to hang on to his seat.

Skees is supporting a proposed change to the GOP bylaws that could shake up the they way delegates elect officers in the future. Under the proposal the successful nominee for party chair would need to receive 50 percent of the overall vote.

According to party executive director Bowen Greenwood, even if the GOP rules committee recommends the proposal and the Central Committee adopts it, the new bylaw wouldn’t take effect until the next officers election in 2015. The change would also require a 2/3 vote from the voting delegates, which seems unlikely.

‘Proxy battle’ in race for vice chair

The very public division between legislative Republicans may play out in the race for vice chair, where Sen. Jennifer Fielder, of Thompson Falls, is challenging incumbent Rep. Christy Clark, of Choteau.

While the race for vice chair rarely garners much attention, some Republicans say this year’s vice chair election is proxy battle: A Fielder win will show that the majority of the party faithful support the hardline stances of the conservatives in the GOP Senate leadership. A Clark victory means the GOP faithful want leaders who are willing to work across on the aisle on major policy issues.

Fielder, who is backed by Senate President Jeff Essmann, represents the right-wing of the party.

Fielder is the president of the Women in Republican Leadership, or WIRL. Fielder said it was through her involvement in that organization that was urged by colleagues to run for the vice chair position and that she wasn’t recruited to run for the spot.

However, Essmann acknowledged last week that his support of Fielder is a follow-through on a promise he made to Clark last session that he would support her removal from office.

Clark approached Essmann during the session to find out why one of her bill,s which had passed the House by a wide margin, hadn’t been assigned to a committee.

Essmann told Clark he was not pleased with the fact that she changed her vote on third reading from ‘yeah’ to ‘nay’ on a Montana Family Foundation-backed school choice bill that was a priority for the conservative leadership team.

Clark, a majority whip in the House, represents the self-described “responsible Republican” coalition in the House and Senate. Clark was among a group of Republican lawmakers in the House who occasionally bucked the hard-line conservative agenda and worked with Democrats to pass key pieces of legislation last session.

Will Daines make an announcement?

There’s some speculation that Montana’s new Republican Congressman, Steve Daines, may make a big announcement on Saturday. Will the first-term representative in the U.S. House jump into the U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Montana senior Sen. Max Baucus?

The answer to that question may very well be ‘yes,’ but it appears unlikely that Daines will announce his decision at the Montana GOP officers convention. Sources close to Daines say we shouldn’t expect any major news from Saturday’s keynote speaker.

Legislature’s ex-top lawyer to run for U.S. House

The Montana Legislature's former top attorney, Rob Stutz, said Friday he's considering running for the U.S. House.

"I was looking at legal issues and the amount of time that was spent trying to govern the people of Montana on legal issues and constitutional issues that really were already decided issues of law," Stutz said. "That was what motivated me to think I can work with the people and not get bogged down by a bunch of extremist procedural and fundamental legal issues procedural and settled legal issues."

Stutz, 38, resigned as the Legislature's chief legal counsel mid-session last March after fewer than nine months on the job.

Stutz gave no reason for his departure at the time. Susan Fox, executive director of the Legislative Services Division, said only that it had to do with a "personnel matter."

Stutz said in an interview Friday said that the legal work of the Legislature was completed after the transmittal break so he opted to take accrued leave time to consider running for Congress.

His term at the Legislature officially ended July 1, Stutz said.

"When the legal work was done for the session, I was done, and I've been looking into running for Congress since then," Stutz said.

Stutz said he's planning on running as a Democrat. He said his primary motivation for seeking the seat stemmed from "seeing the way the Constitution was treated during this last legislative session."

Stutz is the fourth Democrat to signal his interest to seek the party's nomination in June. Democratic state Sen. Kim Gillan of Billings, state Rep. Franke Wilmer of Bozeman, and Missoula City Councilman Dave Strohmaier have already officially announced their campaign.

On the Republican side, presumed GOP frontrunner Steve Daines, who ran for Lieutenant Governor in 2008, is facing a challenge from John Abarr, a former Ku Klux Klan organizer from Great Falls.

Republican Denny Rehberg is giving up his post as Montana's lone Congressman to challenge incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, in what will be the marquee statewide political matchup in 2012.

Possible 2012 contenders?

The Capitol is abuzz following the news that Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg is planning announce his bid for the U.S. Senate.

Rep. Franke Wilmer, D-Bozeman, confirmed Tuesday that she plans to seek Rehberg’s House seat.

Bozeman businessman Steve Daines, the only Republican to officially announce his intent to run for the Senate, is expected to announce on Thursday that he’s stepping out of Rehberg’s way in order to pursue the House instead.

No others have officially announced their plans, but here are some of the names floating around the Capitol for possible 2012 U.S. House bids:

Tyler Gernant, D-Missoula

Gernant, a Missoula attorney, mounted a respectable challenge to eventual Democratic Party nominee Dennis McDonald in 2010. Gernant has run a state-wide campaign, so he should have some name recognition among the party faithful. Gernant said he has been considering another run for the House even before the news that Rehberg would likely seek the Senate, but he hasn’t made a decision yet.

“It’s something I’ve thought about, but I’m going to check around before I make a decision,” Gernant said. “A lot of good could come from that seat and I don’t think Montanan’s have gotten much in the past 12 years.”

Sen. Kim Gillan, D-Billings

Gillan is the minority whip for the Senate Democrats. She served in the House from 1997-2004, and was the minority leader in the 2001 Session. Originally from El Cerrito, Calif., Gillan is the Workforce Development Coordinator for Montana State University-Billings.

“I will wait until after the session before I make any decisions," Gillan said. "My constituents sent me up here to work on jobs, business equipment tax reform and I've got my anti-bullying bill. I don't want (constituents) to think I'm distracted from the job they sent me here to do."

Sen. Shannon Augare, D-Browning

Augare was first elected to the House in 2007 and was the Democratic Whip in the 2009 session before running successfully for the Senate in 2010.

Augare said he, too, is thinking about a possible House run.

"I think every politician has considered running for higher office," Augare said. "I've had some conversations about the House, but I really don't know where I'm at at this point in time. There are some opportunities on the horizon."

Neil Livingstone

Livingstone is co-chairman and CEO of Executive Action, a Washington, D.C.-based crisis management firm. He’s considered an internationally recognized terrorism expert, and he’s probably the most intriguing of the possible 2012 contenders.

According to his official bio:

He is a familiar face on the nation's newscasts as a commentator on terrorism, intelligence, and national security issues. A veteran of more than 1300 television appearances, he has appeared on such programs as "Nightline," "Meet the Press," "Today," "The Early Show," "Crossfire," "Newsmaker Sunday," "The Charlie Rose Show," "Hardball," "Dateline," "The Newshour with Jim Lehrer," "The O'Reilly Report," and the evening newscasts on all of the major networks.

According to multiple news reports (<-three separate links there), Livingstone is said s also said to be considering a run for office in Montana. He purchased a house here in 2009 and registered the Internet domain livingstoneforgovernor.com.

Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer's term ends in 2012 and he can’t run again due to term limits.

A spokesman for Livingstone could not be reached for comment Tuesday night.

A Montana GOP source said Livingstone’s name is still being tossed around as a possible state-wide or congressional candidate. It’s not clear whether Livingstone would challenge the popular Rehberg, take on Steve Daines in a Republican House primary, or seek the Governor’s seat…if any.

Rep. Krayton Kerns, R-Laurel

Kerns, a Tea Party Republican, is also been mentioned as a possible candidate for the House or Governor seats. Kerns, who ran unsuccessfully for Speaker of the House this session, did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

2012 here we come! Senate race to be a bruiser

Roll Call beat Congressman Denny Rehberg to the punch last night, reporting that the six-term Republican would announce his bid for the U.S. Senate on Saturday.

Quoting an unnamed source in the Rehberg camp, the article stated:

“It’s happening Saturday,” said a knowledgeable Montana GOP political operative. “He’s running. There is a lot of support and enthusiasm back home, and Denny knows he can win.”

…

“The operative offered some internal Rehberg polling numbers showing the Montana Republican in a statistical tie with Tester in a prospective 2012 matchup.”

Rehberg’s campaign is mum on the issue, but you can read between the lines in this statement from Rehberg spokesman Brian Barrett:

“Denny has received a lot of support and encouragement to run for the United States Senate in 2012.  He is weighing all of his options carefully and will announce his decision Saturday.”

UPDATE: I just received this statement from Tester spokesman Aaron Murphy:

“Jon is running for another opportunity to serve Montana in the U.S. Senate, not against anyone. He looks forward to comparing his record of the past four years with any challenger. Jon’s known for creating jobs, cutting spending and working together with his colleagues to get substantive things done for Montanans, and nobody is going to outwork him. We look forward to beginning an honest debate following the 2012 primary a year and a half from now.”

Montana’s Primary Election is Tuesday, June 5, 2012.

Meanwhile, back in Helena, Rep. Franke Wilmer, D-Bozeman, a political science professor at Montana State University, announced she plans to seek Rehberg’s (presumed) open seat. If elected, Wilmer would be the first woman to hold that seat since Jeannette Rankin.

In an interview with Capitol reporters this afternoon, Wilmer, a three-term member of the House,  said she considered running for Congress a decade ago. She said she has the experience, qualifications and the common sense ideals to be an effective legislator in Washington, D.C.

Wilmer said her campaign will be built around three major themes:

1) Reducing the Deficit – “There are some good bi-partisan ideas out there. This is not a partisan issue.”

2) Health Care – “If health care reform is going to be declared unconstitutional then we’ve got to get on with the program and fix it because we need it.”

3) Energy: “Montanans don’t like having to make a tradeoff between developing new energy and protecting our natural resources. It’s shouldn’t be one or the other.”

Wilmer said her decision to seek the House seat hinged, in part, on whether Rehberg would stay in the race:

“It’s hard to beat an incumbent that has such widespread support. I don’t know if I’d want to push that rock up hill.”

As far as I know, no one else is publically talking about running for Congress on the Democrats’ side, but apparently at least a handful of state lawmakers are testing the waters.  It’s unlikely that Rehberg will face any serious primary opposition from a Republican.

Bozeman Businessman Steve Daines, who ran for Lieutenant Governor on a failed gubernatorial ticket in 2008, announced in November  that he would run against Tester.  However, a  Montana GOP  insider told me then that  Daines was prepared to step aside from the senate race if Rehberg decided to throw his hat in the ring. In that scenario Daines would then run for Rehberg’s House seat, the source said.

Thus it came as no surprise to see this statement from Daines’ campaign in my e-mail inbox this morning:

“U.S. Senate candidate Steve Daines will make a major campaign announcement Thursday February 3rd.”

Will Daines announce he his switching races to run for the House?

Most likely. Stay tuned.

Now that Roll Call spilled the beans about Rehberg’s plans the story has gone national. Political guru’s are already handicapping the Tester/Rehberg race and it’s possible implications for the Senate in 2012. According to the Cook Political Report, via Jennifer Rubin at WaPo:

Rehberg's entry vaults this contest that had been in the Likely Democratic column to Toss Up, bringing the total number of Democratic-held seats in that column to five. Sens. Ben Nelson (NE), Jim Webb (VA) and Joe Manchin (WV) as well as the open seat in North Dakota are already in the Toss Up column. . .

Speculation over Rehberg’s 2012 plans has been rampant for years. I think it’s safe to say that most political insiders for quite some time expected Rehberg would challenge first-term Tester. After all, Rehberg was the only Republican to ever come within striking distance of Max Baucus, losing to Montana’s senior senator by a mere 5 percent of the vote in 1996, and he’s been politically untouchable in his six House races winning by wide margins in each.

Rehberg fueled speculation about a possible Senate run throughout his 2010 reelection campaign, where he spent almost as much time attacking Tester as he did his opponent in the race, Democrat Dennis McDonald. Rehberg held some 23 “public listening sessions” on Tester’s signature piece of legislation, the Forest Jobs and Recreation Act, throughout his campaign. At a debate in Bozeman, Rehberg not-so-subtly attacked Tester for the way in which the proposed legislation was created: 

“I want to point out the difference between collaboration and consensus. (Tester’s bill) was a collaboration effort. Those were selected people that came together around a table and decided and then wanted to go out and try to convince everybody else it was a great idea. That’s different than consensus. Consensus is actually getting out now before the legislation is introduced and sitting down and listening to them.” 

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee was the first group to rush to Tester’s defense on Tuesday.

DSCC Communications Director Eric Schultz released the following statement:

"Congressman Rehberg has been in Washington for ten years and has nothing to show for it. He's got a record long on spending but short on accomplishments. Rehberg has taken on 9/11 heroes and sued Montana firefighters. Montanans rejected the last career politician who took on the firefighters, and we expect them to ultimately do the same this time."

The Montana Democratic Party was also quit to attack, bringing up, predictably, a certain boating crash on Flathead Lake:

"This is turning out to be one of the worst-kept secrets in Montana," said Ted Dick, executive director of the Montana Democratic Party. "Despite his near-fatal boat accident with a drunk driver, his frivolous lawsuit against Montana firefighters, years of deficit spending and voting against Montana, and an embarrassing record of, well, nothing, Dennis Rehberg wants a new job. He's going to have a tough two years ahead of him explaining to Montanans why he deserves it."

Let the fireworks fly!

Political insiders tell me they expect a flurry of news in the coming days regarding the 2012 elections, including the possibility of other candidates jumping into the race.

Politico: Tester a top GOP target in 2012

According to Politico, Montana Sen. Jon Tester is near the top of the Republican Party’s hit list for 2012:

The flat-topped junior senator from Montana starts the cycle vying with [Nebraska Sen. Ben] Nelson for the undesirable status of most endangered Senate Democrat. On Saturday, Bozeman businessman Steve Daines is expected to enter the race, touting his success as a local job creator at an international consulting company. The Montana Democratic Party is welcoming Daines to the fray with a Federal Election Commission complaint that accuses him of using “soft money” to air an attack ad aimed at Tester that is masked as issue advocacy.

The big question mark in the race is the state’s at-large Congressman Denny Rehberg, who hasn’t yet indicated his plans. His spokesman would only go as far as to say, “Denny is focused on doing the job the overwhelming majority of Montana voters sent him to Washington to do.”

State GOP Chairman Will Deschamps suggests that if Rehberg wants the nomination, it’ll be his for the taking.

“Last two cycles, Denny has carried Missoula County, which is so blue you can’t even think straight,” said Deschamps.

Neil Livingstone, a frequent national security commentator on Fox News Channel, told POLITICO he’s also eyeing the contest but said that if Rehberg runs, he won’t.

“Denny’s a good friend of mine, and I’ll support him on his decision,” he said.

Rumors of a possible Tester vs. Rehberg matchup began to swirl shortly after Tester introduced his Forest Jobs and Recreation Act in July 2009. Rehberg quickly interjected himself into Tester’s signature piece of legislation in December when he launched a “Wilderness Listening Tour.”

Rehberg has also vocally slammed Tester’s role in the Port of Whitetail debacle, accusing Tester of “shooting from the hip” by supporting the $8.5 million dollar renovation at little-used remote border crossing.

Rehberg remains tight-lipped about his plans for 2012, but many political insiders expect he will eventually run.

When asked last week by Tribune Washington, D.C. reporter Ledyard King if he was thinking of taking on Tester, Rehberg had this to say:

“Do you really expect me to answer that? C'mon. For God’s sake, this is two days after the election. I am so excited about getting back and serving in the majority. That’s what I’m focused on … I just have no idea (about a run for Senate). I haven’t even gotten my yard signs down yet.” 

Montana Republican Party sources tell me that if Rehberg does jump into the race, Daines would happily step aside from the Senate race and pursue Rehberg’s House seat.

Rehberg would undoubtedly be the prohibitive favorite in a GOP primary.

Man, we’ve hardly sailed past the 2010  election and already the 2012 waters are getting choppy!

Steve Daines (hasn't yet) announced is 2012 Senate campaign

I mentioned on Monday that Bozeman businessman Steve Daines is poised to launch his 2012 U.S. Senate campaign on Saturday.

Politico reported on the rumor earlier Tuesday evening:

Daines would not confirm his plans, but while traveling in Australia he told POLITICO by telephone that he is planning a political announcement Saturday.

He noted that he has already spoken to GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, the state's only House member and another potential Senate candidate, about his decision.

"Denny's a very good friend. He represents Montana very well. I don't think he's sure what he's going to do. He's spent 10 years in the House, he'll be a senior member in the House. That'll be a better place to serve from where he's been in the past. He's got a pretty good role in the House in the majority," Daines said.

Meanwhile, the Montana Democratic Party has accused Daines of running an illegal shadow campaign for Democrat Jon Tester’s U.S. Senate seat.

According to the Associated Press, the Democrats filed a complaint with the Federal Elections Commission accusing Daines of "running a shadow campaign using soft money from a Colorado political action committee."

At issue is this YouTube ad by a Colorado-based group called Common Sense Issues, posted more than nine months ago. In it Daines attacks Montana Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester and appears on the screen as he states the fact that he's a "fifth generation Montanan" and that he's "disappointed with just how out of touch Max Baucus and Jon Tester are..." Well, see for yourself:



From the AP:

David Benson, executive director of the Montana Democratic Party, said the video essentially launches Daines' campaign for the seat. The party's complaint says the Bozeman businessman is more than $5,000 into his campaign and is beyond merely "testing the waters" for a political run.

If a challenger isn't going to follow basic election laws as we fight for those Montana values, we'll demand accountability," Benson said.

Daines, of course, dismisses the Democrats' complaint:

Daines maintained his non-candidate status Tuesday and suggested Democrats are trying to silence him with the complaint, which he said he has not yet seen.

"We've not received anything, other than from the media," he told the [Billings] Gazette. "I'm curious that they're talking to you before they've filed this with the FEC. I'm not even a candidate right now."

Well, maybe not officially. But it's pretty difficult to watch that ad and not see it as a campaign ad. And then there's the YouTube channel, called MontanaNeedsSteve, where you can these non-campaign videos as well:





Whether we like it or not, campaign 2012 is in full swing as Republican try to cash in on the momentum of last week's election. Are we in for another long, bitter election cycle?

GOP candidates lining up for 2012

Former Republican Congressman Rick Hill on Monday announced his bid for Montana Governor at a kickoff event in Clancy.

Hill, who served two terms in the U.S. House in the late 1990s before a problem with his eyes kept him from running again in 2000, said revitalizing Montana’s economy tops his agenda.

Hill joins former state Sens. Ken Miller of Laurel and Corey Stapleton of Billings in the race for the GOP nomination for the post currently held by two-term Democrat Gov. Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer cannot run again in 2012 due to term limits.

In other news, sources told me on Monday that Bozeman businessman Steve Daines, who ran on Republican state Sen. Roy Brown’s gubernatorial ticket in 2008, intends to announce his bid for the U.S. Senate in the coming days.

Daines was traveling in Australia on Monday and unavailable for comment.

According to one Montana GOP insider, Daines is prepared to step aside from the senate race if Rep. Denny Rehberg decides to throw his hat in the ring to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. In that scenario Daines would then run for Rehberg’s House seat, the source said.

Rehberg has long been rumored to be gearing up to take on Tester and has been vocal in his criticisms of Montana’s junior senator. According to Politico, Rehberg was spotted exiting the National Republican Senatorial Committee's Capitol Hill headquarters just two days after Republicans’ huge showing in last Tuesday’s midterm elections.

CORRECTION: The Politico story I referenced was published in November 2009, not last week as I stated in my post. So the rumors of Rehberg’s alleged 2012 senate have been circulating for at least a year. Regardless, I regret the error.

Montana’s Senior Senator, Democrat Max Baucus, weighed in on subject, saying:

"I don't think it would be wise" to challenge him, Baucus said.